Sydney Property Market Update 19/01/2019
So here we are again, crystal ball time !
As I delve deep deep down into my drawer to dust off that trusty purple spheric oracle and give it a gentle optimistic rub, trying to predict what will happen in the property market, this year is fraught with danger.
But what the heck, I'll give it a whirl.
The first six months is where all the action is.
On February 1st we have the release of the Royal Commission recommendations. Whilst some of these will be very cutting I predict not too many will be directly targeting the meat and potatoes, Mum and Dad residential mortgage market. Despite the at times horrific but very necessary and ultimately rewarding car crash like process of watching Bank after Bank air its dirty laundry and painstakingly go through atrocity after atrocity, when it came to the mortgage sector specifically their behaviour on the whole from what I read and saw was not that bad. Nevertheless, the general sentiment of mistrust from the public and understandable reaction from the banks will pervade the greater property market with a continuation of the current tight lending processes.
On March 23rd we then have the New South Wales state election. This is the hardest prediction to make but I think the Coalition will be returned with a significantly reduced majority and possibly a minority government. If they don't, a change will have more immediate and significant effects on the property market as human beings in general react cautiously when it comes to major financial decisions around a result like this at election time.
And that leaves the Federal Election which will have to take place no later than 18th May. I think this is the easiest prediction to make. It is very difficult for a sitting Federal government to increase its majority and with the opposition needing literally a handful of seats to win, I can see this as very likely. In a similar way to the possibility of the State government changing this would lead to uncertainty as to whether policy changes directly related to the property sector will have a strong impact.
So property prices and interest rates ?
Both definitely not going up in my opinion for the entirety of 2019. Rates will most likely remain unchanged for an unprecedented third straight year. But these are unprecedented times.
And prices will hopefully flatten out to allow buyers confidence that they are paying a fair and reasonable amount of money and equally owners the security to effectively plan their next move once that sold sticker goes up on the signboard.
Already we have seen signs of this with our office exchanging contracts on six properties in the past two weeks across may varied categories and price ranges.
Whatever happens there's one certainty – it won't be boring or for the feint hearted.
That's why I've been doing this job for so long – you can call it many things but boring has never been one of them.
That's it from me. Have a great weekend and I'll see you next week.
0412 465 567